供应链风险传播 BSR-RP 模型仿真研究-《计算机技术与发展》

文章信息/Info

Author(s):: ZHAO Meng; PAN Jian; China Aerospace Academy of Systems Science and Engineering,Beijing 100037,China

摘要:: 在当前经济全球化背景下的复杂供应链网络中,依靠传统供应链风险管理方法难以进行风险管理,而供应链风险的传播模式和影响因素尚不明确,需要借助计算机仿真方法,对供应链风险传播进行仿真实验。为明确供应链上风险的传播模式和影响因素,对供应链风险的传导机理进行了分析,建立了供应链网络风险传播 BSR-RP 模型。结合计算机仿真方法,利用 Netlogo 仿真软件,从供应链整体角度对模型进行了仿真分析。通过调整企业影响力、风险初始模糊程度、风险模糊程度递减参数,探究各影响因素对风险传播的影响。结果表明,企业影响力越大、风险模糊程度越高,风险在供应链网络中的传播范围越广、速度越快。模型从企业和风险的特性角度,一定程度上反映了供应链风险传播的特征。

Abstract:: In the complex supply chain network under the background of current economic globalization,it is difficult to manage the risk by relying on the traditi- onal supply chain risk management method. The propagation mode and influencing factors of supply chain risk are not clear, so it is necessary to carry out simulation experiments on the propagation of supply chain risk by means of computersimulation method. In order to clarify the transmission mode and influencing factors of risk in supply chain,the transmission mechanism of supply chain risk is analyzed,and the BSR-RP model of supply chain network risk propagation is established. Combining with the computer simulation method and using Netlogo simulation software,we simulate and analyze the model from the whole point of view ofsupply chain. By adjusting the parameters of enterprise influence,initial fuzzy degree of risk and decreasing degree of risk,we explore the influence of various influencing factors on risk propagation. The results show that the greater the influence of enterprises and the higher the degree of risk ambiguity,the wider and faster the risk spread in the supply chain network. From the point of view of the characteristics of enterprise and risk,the model reflects the characteristics of supply chain risk propagation to a certain extent.