基于MATLAB的县网中长期负荷预测的实现与应用-《计算机技术与发展》

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Title:: Realization and Application of Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting Method for County Grid Based on MATLAB

Author(s):: WU Yi-chun LI Rui-jun; LI Miao; [1]Anhui Electrical Engineering Professional Technique College[2]School of Instrument science and Opto-electric Engineering,Hefei University of Technology

摘要:: 负荷预测是县级电网规划的基础，为制定合理的电网发展和投资规划提供依据，对于保障地方经济发展所需电力供给具有重要实际意义。文中结合县级电网的实际情况，选用电力弹性系数、线性回归分析、趋势外推、改进灰色预测等方法对实际县级电网电量进行中长期预测，基于MATLAB平台编程实现各种预测方法，并结合算例加以分析比较，说明文；中预测建模简洁、实用性较强，基于MATLAB的建模方法适用于县级电网实际情况，能为电网规划的中长期负荷预测提供有效的分析计算工具，具有较高的应用价值

Abstract:: Load forecasting is the foundation of the county power grid planning, providing the basis to make the rational power grid devel opment and investment plan, having important practical significance for power supply to ensure the local economic development. Com bined with the actual situation of county grid in the paper,choose the electricity elastic coefficient,linear regression analysis, trend extrapolation, and improvement of the grey forecasting such practical methods to predict the actual electric quantity of county grid in medium and long term, based on MATLAB platform programming, all kinds of methods are achieved, and are analyzed and compared by an example, showing that this forecast modeling is simple and more practical. Modeling method based on MATLAB is applicable to the actual sit Uation at the county level power grid,which may provide the effective analysis tools for medium and long term load forecasting of power grid planning, having higher application value