[1]王方顺 严洪森 刘欣.基于改进变权重组合预测模型的产品销售预测[J].计算机技术与发展,2012,(03):217-221.
　WANG Fang-shun,YAN Hong,sen,et al.Prediction of Product Sales Based on Improved Combined Forecasting Model with Variable Weights[J].,2012,(03):217-221.
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基于改进变权重组合预测模型的产品销售预测()
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《计算机技术与发展》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2012年03期
页码:
217-221
栏目:
应用开发研究
出版日期:
1900-01-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Prediction of Product Sales Based on Improved Combined Forecasting Model with Variable Weights
文章编号:
1673-629X（2012）03-0217-05
作者:
王方顺1; 2 严洪森1; 2 刘欣1; 2
[1]东南大学复杂工程系统测量与控制教育部重点实验室[2]东南大学自动化学院
Author(s):
WANG Fang-shun ; YAN Hong; sen ; LIU Xin
[1]Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of CSE, Southeast University[2]School of Automation, Southeast University
关键词:
变权重; 组合预测; 支持向量机; 模型
Keywords:
variable weights ;  combined forecasting ;  support vector machine ;  model
分类号:
TP391 TH166
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
通过分析汽车产品销售时序的特性引入组合预测理论,提出了一种改进的变权重组合预测模型并给出了变权重系数的求取方法。然后针对小样本、多维、多峰、非线性的销售时序特点,采用了基于支持向量机的三种单项预测方法。再通过实例分析显示基于改进变权重组合预测模型的预测精度高于单项预测模型和普通变权重组合预测模型。最后进行了汽车销售时序预测表明基于改进变权重组合预测模型的产品销售预测方法是有效和可行的
Abstract:
Through the characteristic analysis of car product sale series, a combination forecast theory is introduced, and an improved com- bined forecasting model with variable weights is proposed. And then, the coefficient with variable weights estimation method is put for- ward. Considering the characteristics of multi-dimension, small samples, nonlinearity and multi-apex, three methods of monomial predic- tion based on support vector machine （S.VM） are used in this paper. By analyzing the example, it shows that the improved combined forecasting model with variable weights has higher prediction accuracy than the monomial prediction model. Finally, the results of forecas- ting car sale indicate that the product sale forecasting method based on the improved combined forecasting model with variable weights is effective and feasible

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（50875046,60934008）王方顺（1986-），男，安徽桐城人，硕士研究生，研究方向为产品需求预测；严洪森，博士，教授，博士生导师，研究方向为知识化制造、生产计划与调度、预测等
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01