[1]潘晓东[] 王春江 黄镇鸿 张国辉[].作战重心建模中的条件概率生成方法研究[J].计算机技术与发展,2011,(04):56-59.
　PAN Xiao-dong,WANG Chun-jiang,HUANG Zhen-hong,et al.Research on Method of Generating Conditional Probabilities in COG Modeling[J].,2011,(04):56-59.
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作战重心建模中的条件概率生成方法研究()
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《计算机技术与发展》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2011年04期
页码:
56-59
栏目:
智能、算法、系统工程
出版日期:
1900-01-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on Method of Generating Conditional Probabilities in COG Modeling
文章编号:
1673-629X（2011）04-0056-04
作者:
潘晓东[1; 3] 王春江2 黄镇鸿1 张国辉[3]
[1]解放军理工大学指挥自动化学院[2]中国电子设备系统工程研究所[3]96669部队
Author(s):
PAN Xiao-dong; WANG Chun-jiang; HUANG Zhen-hong; ZHANG Guo-hui
[1]Institute of Command Automation,PLA University of Science ＆ Technology[2]Academy of Electronic System Engineering of China[3]96669 unit of PLA
关键词:
COG; 贝叶斯网络; 启发式; 条件概率
Keywords:
centers of gravity;  Bayesian networks;  heuristic;  conditional probability
分类号:
TP391.9
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
运用贝叶斯网络技术对作战重心（Center of Gravity,COG）建模时,子节点条件概率表中的概率分布数量随着父节点数目的增加呈指数增长,这对担负概率估算的领域专家而言是一个巨大的挑战。分析了领域专家在估算条件概率时的启发式思维,提出一致性父节点配置的概念,并把在该配置下估算获得的条件概率和父节点的相对权重作为输入,使用加权和的方法生成其余的条件概率。该方法减少了领域专家在估算条件概率时的认知量,有利于保持概率分布的一致性
Abstract:
The number of probability distributions required in the conditional probability table（CPT） of a child-node grows exponentially with the number of its parent-nodes in the process of COG modeling with Bayesian networks technology,which is a big challenge for domain expert who is assigned to estimate these probabilities.The heuristic thought of domain expert in conditional probability estimation is analyzed,and the concept of compatible parental configurations is presented in this paper.The rest conditional probabilities in the CPT are generated by the method of weighted sum algorithm with the input of conditional probabilities estimated in the compatible parental configuration and relative weights of parent-nodes.The extent of knowledge acquisition is reduced radically when estimating conditional probabilities using this method as well as making for keeping compatibility of probability distributions

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
总装预研基金项目（9140A08020206JB8102）潘晓东（1981-），男，江苏滨海人，硕士研究生，研究方向是作战信息管理、系统工程；王春江，博士，高级工程师，硕士生导师．研究领域为系统工程、建模与仿真等
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01