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《计算机技术与发展》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:

期数:

2007年02期

页码:

27-30

栏目:

智能、算法、系统工程

出版日期:

1900-01-01

文章信息/Info

Title:

Design and Development of Sales Forecasting System Based on Module Technique on. NET Platform

文章编号:

1673-629X（2007）02-0027-04

作者:

徐成 严洪森 黄青

东南大学自动化研究所

Author(s):

XU Cheng;  YAN Hong-sen;  HUANG Qing

Research Institute of Automation, Southeast University

关键词:

销售预测; 预测模型库; 组件技术

Keywords:

sales forecasting;  forecasting model database; module technique

分类号:

TP399

文献标志码:

A

摘要:

为改变企业对未来销售量预测手段的单一性和随意性，设计开发基于．NET组件化的销售预测系统，从而给企业决策者一个有效的、简单明了的预测结果以指导决策。文中根据不同预测方法对某一组具体历史数据的敏感程度不同，通过．NET组件技术实现多种预测方法和预测精度的检验，自动遴选出最适合某一组数据的预测模型或预测方法，达到最佳的预测效果。最后，运用该系统对某汽车制造企业的销售量进行预测，得到较好的效果

Abstract:

In order to avoid the oneness and random in selecting the means of forecasting sale quantity of an enterprise in future, a sales forecasting system is designed arid developed based on module technique on. NET platform, thus supplying the enterprise＇ s leader and decision maker with a valid, simple and manifest forecasting result for their decision- making. In view of the sensitivity of different forecasting means to the practical history data, various forecasting methods are implemented by using the Microsoft. NET module technique and the forecasting model or forecasting method （which is the most suitable to the history data） is automatically selected through the examination of the forecasting accuracy,so that can obtain the best forecasting result. At last, the forecasting system is used to forecast the sale quantity in an automobile manufacturing enterprise, which obtains a satisfying result

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

国家自然科学基金资助项目（60574062.50475075）徐成（1978-），男，浙江龙游人，硕士研究生，研究方向为控制理论与控制工程；严洪森，博士，教授，博士生导师，研究方向为CIMS及FMS建模、生产计划、调度、控制、仿真、并行工程和敏捷制造等

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更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01