[1]曹 慧,秦江涛.基于分解集成框架的铁路货运量预测方法研究[J].计算机技术与发展,2023,33(08):192-198.[doi:10. 3969 / j. issn. 1673-629X. 2023. 08. 028]
 CAO Hui,QIN Jiang-tao.Research on Railway Freight Volume Forecasting Method Based on Decomposition Integration Framework[J].,2023,33(08):192-198.[doi:10. 3969 / j. issn. 1673-629X. 2023. 08. 028]
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基于分解集成框架的铁路货运量预测方法研究()
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《计算机技术与发展》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
33
期数:
2023年08期
页码:
192-198
栏目:
新型计算应用系统
出版日期:
2023-08-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on Railway Freight Volume Forecasting Method Based on Decomposition Integration Framework
文章编号:
1673-629X(2023)08--0192-07
作者:
曹 慧秦江涛
上海理工大学 管理学院,上海 200093
Author(s):
CAO HuiQIN Jiang-tao
School of Management,University of Shanghai for Science&Technology,Shanghai 200093,China
关键词:
互补集合经验模态秃鹰搜索算法极限学习机主成分分析样本熵
Keywords:
complementary ensemble empirical mode decompositionbald eagle searchextreme learning machineprincipal component analysissample entropy
分类号:
TP181
DOI:
10. 3969 / j. issn. 1673-629X. 2023. 08. 028
摘要:
铁路货运量时间序列受到多种因素影响,数据具有波动性以及随机性的特征,导致预测精度低下。 为了提高铁路货运量的预测精度,提出一种基于分解集成框架
的铁路货运量预测方法。 首先筛选相关影响因素,并使用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)进行降维,得到主成分之后使用互补集合经验模态分解( Complementary EnsembleEmpirical Mode Decomposition,CEEMD) 将铁路货运量历史数据分解成较为平稳的分量,用样本熵(Sample Entropy,SE) 评估分量复杂度并重组分量,将重组分量与主成分构成新的数据集,最后将新数据集通过秃鹰搜索算法( Bald Eagle Search,BES) 优化的极限学习机( Extreme Learning Machine,ELM) 的模型中预测,得到重组分量的预测结果,叠加预测分量得到最终预测结果。 与其他算法对比分析得出,提出的 CEEMD-BES-ELM 分解集成方法在铁路货运量预测中具有优越性,能够有效提高铁路货运量预测的准确性。
Abstract:
The time series of railway freight volume is affected by many factors,and the data has volatility and randomness,which leads tothe low prediction?
accuracy. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of railway freight volume,a railway freight volume predictionmethod based on decomposition?
and integration framework is proposed. Firstly,relevant influencing factors were screened,and PrincipalComponent Analysis ( PCA) was used for?
dimension reduction to obtain the principal components. Then the Complementary EnsembleEmpirical Mode Decomposition ( CEEMD) was used t
o decompose the historical data of railway freight volume into a relatively stablecomponent. Sample Entropy ( SE) was used to evaluate component?
complexity and reassemble components,which were combined withprincipal components to form a new data set. Finally,the new data set was predicted?
in the Extreme Learning Machine ( ELM) modeloptimized by Bald Eagle Search ( BES) algorithm to obtain the prediction result of the reconstituted component,and the final predictionresult was obtained by superimposing the prediction component. Compared with other algorithms,the proposed?
CEEMD-BES-ELM decomposition integration method has advantages in railway freight volume prediction and can effectively improve the accuracy?
of railwayfreight volume prediction.
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-08-10