优化的Leslie人口预测模型及其应用-《计算机技术与发展》

文章信息/Info

Keywords:: Leslie forecast method; age structure; mortality; birth rate; Mathematical

摘要:: 中国是一个人口大国，人口与经济和社会的发展密切相关，因此准确地预测人口信息，是制定未来人口发展目标及生育政策等有关人口政策的基础，对研究制定经济和社会的发展决策具有重要的参考价值。文中由中国人口信息网的一些数据，利用Excel进行统计分析，得出了当前我国人口的年龄分布结构及各年龄阶层相关指标(死亡率、生育率、男女性别比例等)的期望值。在这些数据的基础上，运用优化的Leslie人口预测方法建立了预测中国人口数量和年龄结构特点的数学模型。并根据中国的实际情况，依算法分别设计了Mathematical程序预测长期的人口数量和分布结构。结果表明，优化的Leslie模型预测结果准确可靠，为人口控制提供了准确有效的理论依据

Abstract:: As a populous nation,predicting the increase of population in China is of great importance for the close relationship between population and the development of economy and society. To project the information on population accurately is the basic work for making the population policy,such as the goal of the future population development and reproductive policy,which is also of great reference value in making the economic and social development decision. By the China population information website data,analyze with Excel and con-clude current Chinese people's age distribution structure and the expectations of the related indexes of different ages,such as mortality, fertility,gender ratio etc. On the basis of these data,not only establish a mathematical model featuring in predicting Chinese population size and age structure by Leslie's prediction means,but also design the mathematical program on the purpose of predicting long-term of population size and distribution structure in accordance with the actual situation in China. The results show that the optimized Leslie mod-el prediction results are accurate and reliable,for the population control provide the theory accurate and effective basis of theory