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《计算机技术与发展》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:

期数:

2013年09期

页码:

255-257

栏目:

应用开发研究

出版日期:

1900-01-01

文章信息/Info

Title:

Analysis and Verification in RI Earthquake Forecast Model

文章编号:

1673-629X（2013）09-0255-03

作者:

李炜; 潘作舟; 杨静

安徽大学 计算机科学与技术学院

Author(s):

LI Wei; PAN Zuo-zhou; YANG Jing

关键词:

地震预测; 统计学; 预测模型; RI方法

Keywords:

earthquake forecast; statistic; forecast model; RI algorithm

文献标志码:

A

摘要:

地壳运动是一个极其复杂的无秩序现象，通过对地壳运动的研究很难对地震作出预测。为了准确地预测未来地震次数，利用统计学原理是一个很好的选择。RI(Relative-Intensity)方法是从统计学角度构造地震预测模型，对历史发生地震数据进行学习，预测未来将要发生的给定震级范围内的地震次数。RI方法基于这样一个假设：相同区域未来将要发生地震的相对强度和过去发生的地震相近。它将地震模型分为若干个等大的网格，并以网格为基本单位进行统计、计算，最后得到每个网格的地震预测值，对目标区域内所有网格的预测值进行累加就可以得到目标区域的预测值。RI方法在中国华北地区回顾性预测中表现出较好的性能和准确性

Abstract:

The movement of crust of the earth is an extremely complex and chaotic phenomenon. It is very hard to make a prediction by surveying the movement of crust. In order to make an accurate prediction,statistic as a tool is a good choice. RI ( Relative-Intensity) al-gorithm builds an earthquake forecast model which can make a prediction about the number of earthquakes that will occur in the future af-ter learning the data of earthquakes in the past. RI algorithm is based on an assumption that earthquakes are considered likely to occur where earthquakes occurred frequently in the past. RI divides model into several same-sized boxes,calculates with the data within the bo-xes,and make a prediction of every boxes. The sum of predictions of boxes in the target area is the prediction of the target area. RI shows superior performance and accuracy in retrospective testing of North China

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更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01