一种改进的 Prandini 概率型中期冲突探测方法-《计算机技术与发展》

文章信息/Info

Title:: An Improved Medium-term Conflict Detection Methods of Prandini Probability Type

摘要:: Prandini 提出了最典型的概率型中期冲突探测随机化方法,为了研究出更加高效稳定并适合中国空中交通管制的中期冲突探测系统,文中针对 Prandini 所提出的方法的预测结果存在突变误差和计算效率不够高,实时性不足等缺点,提出了一种改进的方法,即分别求解最小预测间距时刻及最小预测间距时刻附近 S 个时刻两飞机间的飞行冲突概率值,比较得出其中最大概率值,以此作为整个冲突探测的概率大小.实验结果显示改进后的方法不仅减少了中期冲突探测的运算量,提高了运算效率,更提高了飞行冲突探测的准确度和稳定性.该方法是一种有效的方法,能够满足我国空中管制系统对中期冲突探测的要求

Abstract:: Prandini has advanced the most classical probabilistic approach to aircraft conflict detection. In order to research a approach which is more efficient and stable than Prandini approach,discuss some improvements to this approach. Given the defects of this method of the mutation error,low calculation efficiency and long calculation time,the writers state a way to get the aircraft conflict probable val-ues through calculating the probable values when the two aircrafts are in the shortest predicted distance and some certain moments near this moment. The biggest one can be the probable value of the aircraft conflict detection. The experiment results show that this method can reduce the calculation of the mid-term conflict detection,increase the calculation efficiency and,more importantly,improve the detection accuracy and stability,which can meet the demand of air traffic control system in China